Inflation Prediction Markets & Odds

Browse the Inflation listings currently shown for inflation-release outcomes. Coverage depends on what connected venues list, and the available contracts can change. Open an event to confirm the participants, edition and outcomes actually offered rather than assuming every topic or venue is represented on this page.

The contract names the index and variant used for settlement. A headline measure and a core measure exclude different items and can produce different changes. Check the agency, series and observation period before comparing prices or substituting a widely reported inflation figure for the exact measure in the listing.

No. They compare different periods and can move differently. A contract may also specify seasonal adjustment or an index level rather than a percentage change. Confirm the unit, comparison window and release version before treating two similarly titled inflation questions as equivalent contracts.

Use the contract’s stated precision, equality and release-version provisions. A rounded headline can hide a value’s relationship to a threshold, and later revisions may not be the observation the contract uses. Check which agency publication and number of decimal places determine the outcome instead of relying on a summary chart.

The contract’s deadline and unavailable-data provisions control. A scheduled release can be delayed without the question necessarily being cancelled. Check whether the outcome requires a release by a fixed cutoff or follows the eventual named publication, and how an alternative source or exceptional settlement is defined.

Start by matching the index variant, adjustment and reference period. Similar titles can describe different events or observation windows. Once the definitions agree, compare executable prices, available order size and applicable fees, rather than relying on the displayed price alone. A market order may not fill its whole size at the first quoted price.